24 March 2026
By Roger Kennedy
roger@TheCork.ie

Entertainment: Is There Room to Expect the Unexpected in European Football This Season?

European football is not short on front-runners, but March has not made everything neat. Arsenal is seven points clear in the Premier League, Inter still leads Serie A, PSG remains first in Ligue 1, Barcelona is four points clear in La Liga, and Bayern holds an 11-point lead in the Bundesliga. Yet the recent rhythm says something different: Arsenal had to survive Brighton with only two shots on target, Milan cut into Inter’s lead in the derby, Monaco won at the Parc des Princes, and Europe produced another round of wild first legs. Nothing is sealed.

England still leaves a back door open

The Premier League table points toward Arsenal, but the manner of its wins still leaves room for disorder. At Brighton on March 4, Bukayo Saka scored in the ninth minute, David Raya kept a 14th clean sheet, and Gabriel had to head clear after Carlos Baleba intercepted a loose pass toward an empty net; that was a title contender surviving details, not cruising. Manchester City then drew 2-2 with Nottingham Forest, which is why the gap matters, but so does the April 19 meeting at the Etihad and City’s game in hand.

Italy still punishes certainty

Serie A looks narrower than it did in winter, but it is not closed. Milan beat Inter 1-0 at San Siro on March 8 when Pervis Estupinan timed his run onto a pass into space and finished in the 35th minute, while Marcus Thuram missed the match with the flu, and Lautaro Martinez stayed on the bench. That was enough to keep a seven-point gap from becoming something heavier, and it was also Milan’s second 1-0 league win over Inter this season. That was a jolt.

France reopened the race in one night

PSG still leads Ligue 1, but the certainty around it took a clear hit against Monaco. Luis Enrique’s side lost 3-1 at home on March 6, its first home league defeat of the season, after Maghnes Akliouche struck first, Aleksandr Golovin scored with his first touch as a substitute, and Folarin Balogun restored the two-goal margin almost immediately after Bradley Barcola had given PSG hope. PSG remains top, but it is only one point clear of Lens, which is a very different kind of lead from the one Bayern holds in Germany.

Europe still wrecks the neat storyline

The Champions League has been even less polite. Liverpool lost 1-0 at Galatasaray after Victor Osimhen headed a corner back across goal for Mario Lemina in the seventh minute, Newcastle thought it had beaten Barcelona until Harvey Barnes volleyed in Jacob Murphy’s cross and then watched Lamine Yamal equalise with the last kick from the spot, and Atletico buried Tottenham under a 15-minute collapse at the Metropolitano. That is why screens for sports betting (French: pari sportif) move so sharply in March: one early error from Antonin Kinsky, one offside in a goalmouth scramble, or one stoppage-time penalty can turn a tie that looked settled into something else. Real Madrid then beat Manchester City 3-0 at the Bernabeu, with Federico Valverde scoring his first career hat-trick on counters after City’s aggressive setup left space behind it.

Spain’s leader is still living match to match

Barcelona leads La Liga, but its recent week hardly read like a side strolling to May. It won 1-0 at Athletic Bilbao on March 7 only after Joan Garcia kept the match level and Pedri, sent on from the bench, slipped the pass for Lamine Yamal’s 68th-minute winner at San Mames. Three days later, at St James’ Park, Hansi Flick admitted Newcastle might have deserved more after Joelinton had a goal disallowed and Yamal’s penalty spared Barcelona at the end.

Germany looks calm until Europe interrupts it

The Bundesliga is the least dramatic title race on the surface. Bayern is 11 points clear, and Vincent Kompany said on March 5 that he had seen leads like that disappear before, which sounded cautious at the time and looked more sensible a few days later when Bayern won 6-1 at Atalanta and still came away with Jamal Musiala, Alphonso Davies, and Jonas Urbig injured. A league lead can protect a weekend; it does not protect a season once Europe starts taking players away.

So, is there room for the unexpected?

Yes, but it sits in specific places. The biggest leagues still have strong favourites, and the standings are not random, yet this season keeps showing how quickly a title race or a European tie can swing on one loose pass, one set-piece second phase, one goalkeeper error, or one bench change at the hour mark. The unexpected is not everywhere. It is everywhere enough.